The merger approval process is heading towards the business-end of proceedings, and the omens are not looking particularly healthy for T-Mobile US and Sprint.
The longer the process takes to complete, the more of a feeling there is the transaction might be denied. As it stands, the FCC has seemingly lit the green light, though it does not appear the Department of Justice (DoJ) is on the same page.
According to reports from Bloomberg, the DoJ is considering additional concessions which would force T-Mobile US and Sprint to create a fourth national MNO to preserve competition. How this would be achieved is not detailed, but it is difficult to see how the duo would be happy with this outcome.
If reports turn out to be true, the concessions bar might be set too high for the parties to be comfortable. This is of course assuming the DoJ is happy with the plans laid out by T-Mobile US and Sprint to satisfy the alleged concession.
The long-standing justification for this merger is to create a more competitive alternative to AT&T and Verizon. To do this, T-Mobile US and Sprint executives have argued combining the network and spectrum assets is imperative. This is where the details of how a fourth nationwide player are needed.
A fair assumption would be the DoJ would insist T-Mobile US and Sprint would spin-off some of their assets to create this fourth alternative. Considering the vast investment which would have to be made, both monetary and time, to establish another MNO from the ground up, it is realistically the only option.
However, spinning-off network and spectrum assets to create a fourth nationwide MNO would most likely weaken the position of the newly combined business. Surely this would undermine the initial justification for the merger? If the merged business does not have access to all the current assets of the pair, would it still be in the same league as AT&T and Verizon?
Critics of the deal are already suspicious of the claims the merged business would be able to satisfy the coverage obligations of the FCC, 97% 5G coverage within three years with no price increases, and what would they say if the DoJ forces the pair to release assets?
These reports also compound theories about the different approaches from the FCC and the DoJ. It would appear the two approving agencies are offering different opinions on a merger for the first time. This can perhaps be explained by the objectives of the agencies.
For the FCC, it does appear improving mobile coverage and quality of experience is the main objective, while the DoJ is focused on preserving competition and choice for the consumer. While there might be some common ground between the two objectives, there is also room for opposing opinions.
For T-Mobile US and Sprint, the situation is not looking the healthiest. Accepting these reported concessions might be difficult if the pair are to remain true to their stated objectives, and that is of course assuming the DoJ accept the response on how they will meet the obligations.
It’s all starting to look a little messy for T-Mobile US and Sprint, and we are starting to get stronger feelings no will be the answer at the end of this prolonged saga.